Forum:2010 Atlantic hurricane season/November-December
November Other than Tomas, which technically lasted into this month, nothing is out there right now. However, we just need two more storms to run the list. Then it's to the greeks...Then again, i'm not expecting more than Alpha or Beta at most. This doesn't mean we won't pass just those names, but keep an eye out there... Ryan1000 01:33, November 6, 2010 (UTC) AoI: Way ESE of Bermuda New wave at 10% on NHC. --Patteroast 18:48, November 6, 2010 (UTC) :Up to 20%. Not that much of an increase, but an increase nonetheless. --Dil (chat) 02:57, November 7, 2010 (UTC) ::And gone from NHC. :( --Dil (chat) 17:54, November 7, 2010 (UTC) 93L.INVEST AoI: Eastern Caribbean Another little one on NHC, 10%. --Patteroast 11:29, November 9, 2010 (UTC) 93L.INVEST Still at only 10% per NHC, but invested now. --Patteroast 12:19, November 9, 2010 (UTC) :Probably should just say that this is gone, and has been for a day. Yqt1001 15:29, November 11, 2010 (UTC) 94L.INVEST AoI: Coming off South America A mass of clouds is emerging from Venezuela/Columbia into the Caribbean. A lot of models agree on a system forming from this. May we just be about to witness our second ever "V" storm? Jake52 13:55, November 11, 2010 (UTC) :Up to 20% on NHC and is also in an environment that's likely becoming favorable. One to watch for sure. Jake52 15:41, November 12, 2010 (UTC) 94L.INVEST Up to 30% risk from NHC, now. --Patteroast 19:31, November 12, 2010 (UTC) :This thing may just be having a field day out there. It's found an oasis of bathtub warm water and low shear in the western Caribbean. This thing reminds me of all of the monsters recorded late in the season, but hopefully it won't be that bad. Once it leaves the Caribbean, it's going to be in a wasteland of shear, dry air, and frigid waters. Hopefully it won't get that strong before it hits anywhere. Ryan1000 13:15, November 13, 2010 (UTC) ::And 94L(Future Virginie) is now at 40%. Darren23Edits|Mail 14:05, November 13, 2010 (UTC) And back down to 30% at the 1AM EST advisory. Yqt1001 05:41, November 14, 2010 (UTC) :Well, i'm not expecting that to last long... There is some shear behind (Virginie) right now, but that shear is soon going to abandon this storm, and we could see our 20th named storm in the next day or two. I personally am not expecting a U.S. landfall from 94L, due to the wasteland conditions in the GOM. Southern Cuba and Central America, however, must watch out for this one very carefully. Ryan1000 18:13, November 14, 2010 (UTC) ::I'm really surprised that no one has said that the odds of TC formation dropped to 20% yet... Yqt1001 23:45, November 15, 2010 (UTC) :It's running into some unfavorable conditions, so i'm not surprised as to why it's weakening... Even so, I still think it will get its act together at one point or another... I think it will organize itself into Virginie in the next 3 or 4 days, but the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season is rapidly dying away. Not so say we won't have any post-season surprises, but we have two more weeks until we can (oficially) call it a season. I'm expecting us to run the list, but if we get the Greeks, I think it'll be highly unlikely that we pass Alpha or Beta. A 2005 is far from out of the question. Nothing else can be said now. Ryan1000 13:56, November 16, 2010 (UTC) ::Do you have facts to back that up or is that you saying that you want to see another named storm to get to Alpha faster? However odds are now "near 0%" for TC formation the next 48 hours.. Yqt1001 23:43, November 16, 2010 (UTC) :I was just saying there was a chance we could have her by now, but perhaps Virginie will have to wait after all, either for later this year or for 2016. This season is pretty much over, but I think we could still have one more post-season or late November surprise, knowing the activity in the season. Ryan1000 11:32, November 17, 2010 (UTC) Its back! After disappearing from the NHC for about a day, they have brought it back with a 20% chance of cyclone formation. Odds of formation to Virginie looking very very low, but there's a new disturbance forming which could bring the 20th named storm of the year. Yqt1001 20:13, November 18, 2010 (UTC) :How's it looking now, yqt1001? I think Virginie is coming onto us this wekend. Hopefully it won't be severe, if anything i'm expecting a strong tropical storm or hurricane going into Cuba. Again, there's yet another cold front over the southeast that will stop a U.S. landfall from this storm, too. The Carribean may need to keep an eye on this thing... How strong it gets depends on how long it stays there. Watch out. Ryan1000 03:07, November 19, 2010 (UTC) Eh, it failed again. The cold front is pulling the guts out of this thing right now. If it can hang on through this rough environment, it might still have a chance; however, we only have 11 more days until we can (oficially) call this a season. It may still have a chance to come back, but the chances of that happening now are very, very slim. Ryan1000 13:55, November 19, 2010 (UTC) :It did look like we were going to see a Virginie last night...too bad, I was looking forward to seeing Virginie. The models seem to favour it going towards Cuba very slowly, if it can hold out until the cold front is gone it might have more of a chance of becoming the 20th storm of the year. Great year nonetheless, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a December storm this year...so I will watching this year very closely until January 1st 2011 hoping for one last storm! Yqt1001 15:58, November 19, 2010 (UTC) ::Gone...again. Yqt1001 00:59, November 20, 2010 (UTC) :The bulk of convection is in the EPac now. It could develop there, but because the Pacific is such a wasteland right now, it most likely won't happen. There is an elongated tropical wave in the central Caribbean right now, however, and if that trough makes it to the western Caribbean, the two systems could merge, and we could see Virginie after all. We'll just have to wait and see, I guess... Ryan1000 15:39, November 20, 2010 (UTC) ::It was long dead 3 days ago. No one mentioned it, but I guess I will bid a fine farewell to 2010. We have just one mone week until 2010 can be(oficially) called a season. Then, we will do another "retirements at a glance(part 2)" section and discuss about what happened this year and what it can be compared to with other inactive seasons. Why this year was one of the quietest ever for the SHem and Pacific, but why the Atlantic got to be so hyped up this season. Ryan1000 20:08, November 24, 2010 (UTC) AoI: North of Panama Hello! A new blob is up on NHC. --Patteroast 01:27, November 30, 2010 (UTC) :Bah you beat me to it by a few minutes...anyways the storm is in favourable weather for now, most models still show it dissipating before it becomes anything. Yqt1001 01:42, November 30, 2010 (UTC) December AoI: East of the Windward Islands No, this is not a joke. An area of shower activity appears to be moving west into the islands in a couple of days. Not sure about development though. It's unlikely, but if this thing forms before the Windwards, I'll officially go insane. Jake52 09:08, December 5, 2010 (UTC) :I don't know if it'll... eh, it's an epic fail. The season's done. Even so, 2010 is pretty much done anyways... or it will be in 26 days... This storm is under a signifigant ammount of shear over the lessers, and I'd be stunned if I see a monster out of this thing. Post-season storms are very rare and just don't happen all the time... Ryan1000 17:26, December 5, 2010 (UTC) ::The area it is in right now is going to be favourable for development in a few days a day or so, not for long enough to see a storm though (only 24-48 hours), but if it can organize itself we could see Virginie...doubtful though. EDIT: the favourability loop is showing that this storm will not be in favourable weather for TC formation. Yqt1001 18:56, December 5, 2010 (UTC) :And... It failed. The shear has pretty much ripped this thing to shreds, and I highly doubt we will see a storm out of this... It isn't impossible that it could reorganize in the Western Carribean, but even there it will have a hard time developing. Ryan1000 15:43, December 6, 2010 (UTC) 95L.INVEST Um. Where did that invest that NHC has at 30% risk of development come from? It's out past the Lesser Antilles! --Patteroast 21:05, December 20, 2010 (UTC) :NHC was saying it had a window to develop on Tuesday, but it just got bumped down to 10% risk of development. Not very surprising. --Patteroast 14:00, December 21, 2010 (UTC)